"Earlier this month, California Governor Jerry Brown strode to a podium in Sacramento and said something that, a few years ago, seemed as unlikely as a UFO landing atop the state Capitol: The initial projection for the state budget showed a balance. In fact, for the 2013-2014 fiscal year, there’s a surplus of $851 million. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, which just a couple months earlier estimated a deficit of $1.9 billion, concurred with the governor: Revenues matched expenditures in the initial outlook for the first time since before the Great Recession.
This was a surprise, to say the least. After all, in 2009, California carried a deficit as high as $42 billion. Marathon all-nighters in the legislature and unsatisfying 11th hour deals were commonplace. At one point the state paid obligations with IOUs because it ran out of money.
You can’t use projections to declare an economy sound again. You simply can’t. Interesting how Dayen went all the way back to 2009 for a deficit number when the state was carrying a $20-something billion deficit just last year. Why? Partly because the state had incorrectly projected its pending state income tax revenue for 2011 filings and came up billions short in the spring.
The Reason Foundation’s Leonard Gilroy noted at Breitbart.com’s Big Government what really happens with California’s budget. They almost always declare that it’s “balanced” and then adjust downward as reality asserts itself and makes a mockery of the projections:
Last November, for example, California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office wrote, “The 2012–13 budget assumed a year–end reserve of $948 million. Our forecast now projects the General Fund ending 2012–13 with a $943 million deficit.” …
To make his budget proposal look balanced this time around, Gov. Brown makes another series of optimistic assumptions, including that the tax increases California voters approved last November won’t hurt the economy and the state’s economy and tax revenues will grow; that California’s millionaires, hit with higher taxes again, won’t pack up and move to low-tax states; that California’s housing market will improve and home prices will go up; that President Barack Obama and Congress won’t do anything to hurt the national economy; and that the stock market will rise....".
http://reason.com/blog/2013/01/29/ne...ion-of-califor


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